Every week brings a new claim: a tool that will replace this profession, a model that thinks, an agent that runs your business. Some of it is real. Much of it is marketing. And the people with the most to gain or lose, working professionals and small business owners, have no reliable way to tell the difference.
The cost of miscalibration runs both ways. Believe too much and you buy shelfware, or fear for a job that is not going anywhere. Believe too little and you concede years of advantage to competitors who calibrated better.
The gap is no longer anecdote; it is measured. Gartner predicted that at least 30 percent of generative AI projects would be abandoned after proof of concept by the end of 2025, citing poor data quality, inadequate risk controls, escalating costs or unclear business value. RAND reports that by some estimates more than 80 percent of AI projects fail, twice the rate of ordinary IT projects. And S&P Global's 2025 survey of a thousand professionals found 42 percent of companies had abandoned the majority of their AI initiatives, up from 17 percent a year earlier.
The confusion is manufactured as much as accidental. Between vendors quoting best-case demos, media compressing nuance into verdicts, and job anxiety filling the gaps, a working professional receives almost no signal that is both honest and specific. The default responses are the two worst available: dismiss everything, or believe everything.